Trends in Covid-19 Admissions and Deaths among People with Hiv in South Africa

Background: South Africa experienced five COVID-19 waves and over 90% of the population have developed immunity. HIV prevalence among adults is 19% and over 2 million people have uncontrolled viral loads, posing a risk for poor COVID-19 outcomes. Using national hospital surveillance data, we aimed to investigate trends in admission and factors associated with in-hospital COVID-19 mortality among people with HIV (PWH) in South Africa. Method(s): Data between March 5, 2020 and May 28, 2022 from the national COVID-19 hospital surveillance system, SARS-CoV-2 case linelist and Electronic Vaccine Data System were linked and analysed. A wave was defined as the period for which weekly incidence was >=30 cases/100,000 people. Descriptive statistics were employed for admissions and mortality trends. Postimputation random effect multivariable logistic regression models compared (a) characteristics of PWH and HIV-uninfected individuals, and (b) factors associated with mortality among PWH. Result(s): 68.7% (272,287/396,328) of COVID-19 admissions had a documented HIV status. PWH accounted for 8.4% (22,978/272,287) of total admissions, and 9.8%, 8.0%, 6.8%, 12.2% and 6.7% of admissions in the D614G, Beta, Delta, Omicron BA.1 and Omicron BA.4/BA.5 waves respectively. The case fatality ratio (CFR) among PWH and HIV-uninfected was 24.3% (5,584/22,978) vs 21.7% (54,110/249,309) overall, and in the respective waves was 23.7% vs 20.4% (D614G), 27.9% vs 26.6% (Beta), 26.2% vs 24.5% (Delta), 18.2% vs 9.1% (Omicron BA.1) and 16.8% vs 5.5% (Omicron BA.4/BA.5). Chronic renal disease, malignancy and past TB were more likely, and hypertension and diabetes were less likely in PWH compared to HIV-uninfected individuals. Among PWH, along with older age, male sex and presence of a comorbidity, there was a lower odds of mortality among individuals with prior SARS-CoV-2 infection (aOR 0.6;95% CI 0.4-0.8);>=1 dose vaccination (aOR 0.1;95% CI 0.1-0.1);and those admitted in the Delta (aOR 0.9;95% CI 0.8-0.9), Omicron BA.1 (aOR 0.5;95% CI 0.5-0.6) and Omicron BA.4/BA.5 (aOR 0.5;95% CI 0.4-0.7) waves compared to the D614G wave. PWH with CD4< 200 had higher odds of in-hospital mortality (aOR 1.9;95% CI 1.8-2.1). Conclusion(s): In South Africa, mortality among PWH was less likely in the Delta and Omicron waves but PWH had a disproportionate burden of mortality during the two Omicron waves. Prior immunity protected against mortality, emphasizing the importance of COVID-19 vaccination among PWH, particularly PWH with immunosuppression.

Guiding equitable prioritisation of COVID-19 vaccine distribution and strategic deployment in South Africa to enhance effectiveness and access to vulnerable communities and prevent waste

Background. In South Africa (SA), >2.4 million cases of COVID-19 and >72 000 deaths were recorded between March 2020 and 1 August 2021, affecting the country's 52 districts to various extents. SA has committed to a COVID-19 vaccine roll-out in three phases, prioritising frontline workers, the elderly, people with comorbidities and essential workers. However, additional actions will be necessary to support efficient allocation and equitable access for vulnerable, access-constrained communities. Objectives. To explore various determinants of disease severity, resurgence risk and accessibility in order to aid an equitable, effective vaccine roll-out for SA that would maximise COVID-19 epidemic control by reducing the number of COVID-19 transmissions and resultant deaths, while at the same time reducing the risk of vaccine wastage. Methods. For the 52 districts of SA, 26 COVID-19 indicators such as hospital admissions, deaths in hospital and mobility were ranked and hierarchically clustered with cases to identify which indicators can be used as indicators for severity or resurgence risk. Districts were then ranked using the estimated COVID-19 severity and resurgence risk to assist with prioritisation of vaccine roll-out. Urban and rural accessibility were also explored as factors that could limit vaccine roll-out in hard-to-reach communities. Results. Highly populated urban districts showed the most cases. Districts such as Buffalo City, City of Cape Town and Nelson Mandela Bay experienced very severe first and second waves of the pandemic. Districts with high mobility, population size and density were found to be at highest risk of resurgence. In terms of accessibility, we found that 47.2% of the population are within 5 km of a hospital with 50 beds, and this percentage ranged from 87.0% in City of Cape Town to 0% in Namakwa district. Conclusions. The end goal is to provide equal distribution of vaccines proportional to district populations, which will provide fair protection. Districts with a high risk of resurgence and severity should be prioritised for vaccine roll-out, particularly the major metropolitan areas. We provide recommendations for allocations of different vaccine types for each district that consider levels of access, numbers of doses and cold-chain storage capability.

Guiding equitable prioritisation of COVID-19 vaccine distribution and strategic deployment in South Africa to enhance effectiveness and access to vulnerable communities and prevent waste.

BACKGROUND: In South Africa (SA), >2.4 million cases of COVID­19 and >72 000 deaths were recorded between March 2020 and 1 August 2021, affecting the country's 52 districts to various extents. SA has committed to a COVID­19 vaccine roll-out in three phases, prioritising frontline workers, the elderly, people with comorbidities and essential workers. However, additional actions will be necessary to support efficient allocation and equitable access for vulnerable, access-constrained communities. OBJECTIVES: To explore various determinants of disease severity, resurgence risk and accessibility in order to aid an equitable, effective vaccine roll-out for SA that would maximise COVID­19 epidemic control by reducing the number of COVID­19 transmissions and resultant deaths, while at the same time reducing the risk of vaccine wastage. METHODS: For the 52 districts of SA, 26 COVID­19 indicators such as hospital admissions, deaths in hospital and mobility were ranked and hierarchically clustered with cases to identify which indicators can be used as indicators for severity or resurgence risk. Districts were then ranked using the estimated COVID­19 severity and resurgence risk to assist with prioritisation of vaccine roll-out. Urban and rural accessibility were also explored as factors that could limit vaccine roll-out in hard-to-reach communities. RESULTS: Highly populated urban districts showed the most cases. Districts such as Buffalo City, City of Cape Town and Nelson Mandela Bay experienced very severe first and second waves of the pandemic. Districts with high mobility, population size and density were found to be at highest risk of resurgence. In terms of accessibility, we found that 47.2% of the population are within 5 km of a hospital with ≥50 beds, and this percentage ranged from 87.0% in City of Cape Town to 0% in Namakwa district. CONCLUSIONS: The end goal is to provide equal distribution of vaccines proportional to district populations, which will provide fair protection. Districts with a high risk of resurgence and severity should be prioritised for vaccine roll-out, particularly the major metropolitan areas. We provide recommendations for allocations of different vaccine types for each district that consider levels of access, numbers of doses and cold-chain storage capability.

Community multimonth art provision: Pooled analysis of 2 cluster-randomized trials

Background: Differentiated service delivery (DSD) models provide flexibility for patients accessing antiretroviral treatment (ART) in sub-Saharan Africa, and decongest health facilities. With the global COVID-19 pandemic, DSD models, which promote social distancing and facilitate easier access to ART in the community are critical. We investigated the clinical effectiveness of community-based multimonth ART provision in high HIV prevalence settings in Zimbabwe and Lesotho. Methods: Individual-level patient data were pooled from two clusterrandomized noninferiority trials that compared 3 and 6-monthly communitybased ART provision vs. standard of care facility-based ART dispensing for stable HIV patients, which were conducted between 2017-2019. Both trials had three-arms: ART collected 3-monthly at facilities (3MF, control);ART provided 3-monthly in community ART refill groups (CARGs) (3MC);and ART provided 6-monthly in either CARGs or at community-distribution points (6MC). Stable adults with viral suppression receiving ART ≥6 months were recruited. The primary outcome was retention in ART care 12 months after enrolment, and secondary outcomes were viral suppression and number of unscheduled clinic visits between months 0-12. Individual-level regression analyses were conducted by intention-to-treat specifying for clustering and adjusted for country. Results: 60 randomized clusters were included with 3817, 2893 and 3426 participants enrolled in arms 3MF, 3MC and 6MC, respectively. After 12 months, retention in 3MF, 3MC and 6MC was 95.0%, 95.7% and 95.1%, respectively;adjusted risk differences 0.3 (95% CI: -0.8 to 1.4);-0.2 (95% CI: -1.4 to 1.0) and -0.5 (95% CI: -1.7 to 0.6) for 3MC vs. 3MF, 6MC vs 3MF, and 6MC vs 3MC, respectively (Figure 1). All comparisons achieved the prespecified noninferiority margin of -3.25%. Viral suppression after 12 months was high in all arms;97.8%, 98.6% and 97.9% in 3MF, 3MC and 6MC, respectively, adjusted risk ratios=1.0 (95% CI: 0.99-1.01);1.0 (0.97-1.01) and 1.0 (0.97-1.01) for 3MC vs. 3MF, 6MC vs 3MF, and 6MC vs 3MC, respectively. No differences in the number of unscheduled clinic visits between arms were apparent. Conclusion: Community-based ART provision at both 3 and 6-monthly intervals were noninferior vs. 3-monthly facility-based dispensing in high HIV-prevalence settings for stable HIV patients. These DSD models are now more critical than ever, and can be scaled-up to promote social distancing and clinic decongestion to mitigate the impact of COVID-19.